TrueNorthFiduciary Risk Advisors
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Stop-Loss Modeler

Where should your stop-loss attachment point actually sit?

A 1,000-trial Monte Carlo of your claims volatility. Drag the threshold to see how often a chosen attachment would breach in a typical plan year, and what premium that corresponds to in today's market.

Sources · NAIC stop-loss filings · KFF Employer Health Benefits Survey · Sun Life · Berkley

Plan inputs

300
$125,000
125% of expected
Mean retention$2,477,414Expected employer cost net of both stop-loss layers.
95th-percentile retention$2,873,861The worst-case retention in 1 of 20 simulated plan years.
Estimated stop-loss premium$102,456Market-illustrative — not a quote.

Cost distribution · 1,000 simulations

Drag · employer comfort threshold$2,873,861

4.9% of 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations land above your threshold — the share of plan years that would breach your stop-loss program.

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Methodology and assumptions

Distribution · Per-employee annual claim cost is modeled log-normal, calibrated so the mean equals the public KFF per-employee figure (~$8,400). The sigma parameter is set by your volatility selection (low: 0.95, moderate: 1.2, high: 1.55).

Stop-loss application · For each of 1,000 simulations we sum per-claimant cost capped at the specific attachment, then cap that sum at the aggregate corridor multiple of expected claims.

Premium estimates · Calibrated to NAIC schedule loss ratios for the US medical stop-loss market (~65%). Real market quotes will vary based on claim history, demographics, region, and carrier appetite.

Important · This tool is market-illustrative, not a binding quote. Use it to frame the underwriting conversation, not to replace it.